ETF Technical Analysis Blog

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Jul 13, 2010, Crude, Gold, & Silver heading lower?

All three, Crude Oil, Gold, & Silver, turned down today from resistance. All three closed considerably below their previous days's close and even below the lows. This is a sign that prices potentially are set to head down for lower lows.

Jul 8, 2010, Unfilled gap in SPY

There is an unfilled gap created with the open on 6/29/10. The price will fill the gap if the price could rise to 107.48. There is another resistance area at the 109 level if the price decides to push a little higher. This pricce action is in between the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the decline from the 6/21/10 high.

Jul 1, 2010, Silver Funds

Charts and Analysis of Silver Funds

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Jul 1, 2010, Gold Funds

Charts and Analysis of Gold Funds

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Jul 1, 2010, Crude Oil Funds

Chart & Analysis of Crude Oil Funds

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Jul 1, 2010, Financial Funds

Chart & Analysis for Financial Funds

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Jul 1, 2010, Treasury Funds

Charts and Analysis of Treasury Funds

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Jul 1, 2010, Major Index Funds

Charts and Analysis of Major Index Funds

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Jun 17, 2010, Bearish Candlestick in GLD and SLV

GLD and SLV closed today with a Japanese Bearish Harami Candlestick pattern today. This happens when a red candle is within the body of the previous green candle. This means that today's trading range stayed withing yesterday's trading range and it closing down for the day to show the real weakness. I expect that gold and silver are set to fall tomorrow or the next day. How far is the real question.

Jun 15, 2010, Sliced, Diced, and Chopped

Do you fill like you have been through a food processor? SPY has had big swings for several weeks now in away making you dizzy or at least doubt you know what you are doing.

SPY has had big daily moves in which the price closes near the lows one day and then rise well above the previous day's price action and close near the highs of the session. Then repeats itself every couple of days. The ultimate direction is sideways. The key word here is sideways. This sideways movement is corrective of the main direction of the trend and that is down for the moment. Hang in there, you will know when the sideways price action is over! I promise! When that happens, you will be complaining how one directional the price action is and fussing about the ride being straight down. You will go from a food processor to a water slide that is several stories high and practically a vertical drop.

Jun 15, 2010, SPY's correction may be complete

The Elliott Wave count indicates that the last push to complete the corrective move up potentially is complete. The price could extend higher tomorrow, however, it is not necessary.

Jun 8, 2010, Volatility is coming back into the Market!

VXX has risen out of TAZ. Look for the VXX to reach the 40 to 50 level next.

May 25, 2010, TBT Volume

The volume has increased dramatically since the end of April. You have to wonder if the price is about to bottom somewhere near current levels. Most likely we will see one more spike down with volume exceeding the current volume high set on the "Flash Crash" day.

May 7, 2010, Look out for the VIXX

The VIXX is now above its 55 EMA! It has not been above it since March 2009. Yesterday may have been a warning shot across the bow. Keep a close eye one the markets.

Feb 24, 2010, Country Funds

Chart & Analysis for Country Funds

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Feb 15, 2010, Sector Funds

Chart & Analysis for Sector Funds

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Feb 15, 2010, Currency Funds

Chart & Analysis for Currency Funds

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Feb 14, 2010, Energy Funds

Chart & Analysis for Energy Funds

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Feb 5, 2010, Market Indexes are due for a bounce.

I have looked hard at the Index charts this afternoon trying to get my head what is going on in the markets. I had made previous post saying that I expected one more small push lower. It rebounded into 2/2/10 before falling hard into this morning and the small push turned into a large push lower. I then followed that post saying that the second leg down had started. Now I am not sure.

Why am I confused? Using Elliott Wave analysis, I can see that the first wave down ended on 1/29/10 with wave two ending on 2/2/10. My last post said that wave three had started with the break below the 1/29/10 low. However, I can see where the 2/2/10 high is only the fourth wave of the first wave down. This means that today’s low completed the first wave down, not the 1/29/10 low.

What will clear things up? The big one is the break of today’s low. A break of that level will confirm that the third wave or second leg down is in play.

The bounce that started late this afternoon should retrace higher if the 2/2/10 high is the fourth wave of the higher degree first wave down from the 1/29/10 high. In other words, the upcoming bounce will be the second wave correction instead of the 2/2/10 high. The breaking of the 2/2/10 high is not necessary to validate that interpretation. However, if the third wave is in play, the price should not challenge the 2/2/10 high as much.

You must understand that any bounce higher from today is a correction of the main trend down. You can potentially miss great profits by trying to pin point the entry levels on any bounce. The window of opportunity for entries will be narrow in this decline. Things can change on a dime as indicated by today’s action. As I have said before, this is a sell short on any upwards bounce. The bounces should not last that long in this decline.

With that said, I recommend short sells on any Bull Index ETF with a move above today’s high or today’s low. You can buy the Bear Index ETFs with a move below today’s low or today’s high. I meant it when I said the window would be narrow to catch this decline.

Feb 5, 2010, Take profits in Oil ETFs!

You should be holding a long position in SCO and short positions in OIH, UCO, UGA, and USO if you had been folling my recommendations. Now I recommend taking profits this afternoon as the market seems to decline into the close. Some of these ETFs have over a 20% profit!

Feb 5, 2010, The Bear Market has resumed its decline!

Wave 3 is officially on! I recommend taking long positions on any Bear ETF and short positions on any Bull ETF. We may see a bounce tomorrow and that will be a great opportunity to take positions. I cannot stress enough that this is just the beginning. You need to be getting out of any long positions in Index, Financial, Oil, Gold, or Silver funds. The bear market will not take any prisoners this time.

The decline in 2008 and 2009 will be a kid’s birthday party compared to this coming slaughter. You will have opportunities to take positions in Bear ETFs and short Bull ETFs in the coming months. Just realize that the opportunities to get the best price will be a very small window. You used to hear that the best way to make money in the market is to buy and hold while accumulating shares on any dips. A buy (short) and hold will be good here, however, you will be adding short positions on any upwards bounce.

Feb 2, 2010, USO has found resistance.

USO has broken through the 38.2% retracement level and is just short of the 50% level. Current price however, is snug up against horizontal resistance. This may be the end to the corrective pattern.

Feb 2, 2010, DIA and SPY have broken the 38.2% retracement.

DIA and SPY have broken the 38.2% retracement of the current decline. The corrective pattern appears to be an expanded flat according to Elliott Wave Analysis and potentially could be near completion.

QQQQ has not even reached the 38.2% level. It seems the broader index does not have enough strength to climb the hill.

The next day or two could be crucial for a potential entry for a short trade. Stay tuned!

Feb 2, 2010, GLD has reached the 50% retracement.

GLD has reached the 50% retracement level and also a horizontal resistance. The corrective pattern looks to be complete, although I recommend confirmation before entering a short trade.

Feb 2, 2010, GLD correction nears completion.

GLD looks like it is putting the finishing touches on an expanded flat this morning. I do not want to recommend a trade until confirmation. The price action this morning already looks bearish; however, I want to see how it finishes the day.

Feb 1, 2010, No stab lower for Major Indexes.

Apparently, the major indexes completed the first leg down since the January highs. I was expecting one smaller stab lower; however, I apparently missed the count. With the volume being muted with the strong up move today, I do not expect the prices in the major indexes to break above the 38.2% retracement level. That level for DIA is 103.01, SPY is 110.24, and QQQQ is 44.16. There is no reason it cannot retrace more, but I want you to be on alert at those levels in case a good short sell entry presents itself.

You can follow the other Index ETFs for they will shadow the above ETFs. There will be many opportunities to make some money with the upcoming move down. You will have to decide which funds to trade.

Feb 1, 2010, Gold's first leg down is complete.

I apparently missed the Elliott Wave count in gold as I did with the major indexes. The first leg down should be complete. One thing to mention is the important fact that the corrective pattern potentially could be near completion. Gold had a very big move today and retraced 38.2% of the decline. It could potentially challenge the 50% retracement level in the next day or so. Stay close for my recommendations.

Jan 28, 2010, One more stab lower for the Major Indexes.

It looks like DIA will need one more stab lower tomorrow or Monday to complete the first leg down. Right now we have 10 waves down when viewing a 15-minute chart. Impulsive waves have either 5, 9, or 13 waves. Corrective waves have either 3, 7, or 11 waves. Since we only have 10 down, we then need one more up-down move. We probably had the up move at the end of the trading day today, therefore, we only need one more push to lower lows. After that, we should have a multiple day corrective bounce into next week.

Jan 28, 2010, Take profits in the Gold ETFs.

A temporary bottom is in place. Take profits in DZZ, GLL, GLD, IAU, and UGL.

We will wait on the bounce to find the best re-entry level.

Jan 27, 2010, Take profits in QQQQ and TWM!

Take profits in QQQQ and TWM. The five wave pattern down seems to be complete. Take profits and then we will wait for a correction to jump in again.