http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html Updates to my chart analysis and recommendations en-us ETF Tue, 13 Jul 2010 02:19:57 GMT Tue, 13 Jul 2010 02:19:57 GMT etf-technical-analysis.com http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Crude,-Gold,-&-Silver-heading-lower? All three, Crude Oil, Gold, & Silver, turned down today from resistance. All three closed considerably below their previous days's close and even below the lows. This is a sign that prices potentially are set to head down for lower lows. Tue, 13 Jul 2010 02:01:27 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Unfilled-gap-in-SPY There is an unfilled gap created with the open on 6/29/10. The price will fill the gap if the price could rise to 107.48. There is another resistance area at the 109 level if the price decides to push a little higher. This pricce action is in between the 50 and 61.8 retracement levels of the decline from the 6/21/10 high. Thu, 08 Jul 2010 02:09:56 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/silver_funds.html Charts and Analysis of Silver Funds Thu, 01 Jul 2010 23:25:29 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/gold_funds.html Charts and Analysis of Gold Funds Thu, 01 Jul 2010 22:58:08 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/crude_oil_funds.html Chart & Analysis of Crude Oil Funds Thu, 01 Jul 2010 22:38:19 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/financial_funds.html Chart & Analysis for Financial Funds Thu, 01 Jul 2010 22:21:24 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/treasury_funds.html Charts and Analysis of Treasury Funds Thu, 01 Jul 2010 22:03:55 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/major_index_funds.html Charts and Analysis of Major Index Funds Thu, 01 Jul 2010 21:52:58 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Bearish-Candlestick-in-GLD-and-SLV GLD and SLV closed today with a Japanese Bearish Harami Candlestick pattern today. This happens when a red candle is within the body of the previous green candle. This means that today's trading range stayed withing yesterday's trading range and it closing down for the day to show the real weakness. I expect that gold and silver are set to fall tomorrow or the next day. How far is the real question. Thu, 17 Jun 2010 02:23:37 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Sliced,-Diced,-and-Chopped Do you fill like you have been through a food processor? SPY has had big swings for several weeks now in away making you dizzy or at least doubt you know what you are doing. SPY has had big daily moves in which the price closes near the lows one day and then rise well above the previous day's price action and close near the highs of the session. Then repeats itself every couple of days. The ultimate direction is sideways. The key word here is sideways. This sideways movement is corrective of the main direction of the trend and that is down for the moment. Hang in there, you will know when the sideways price action is over! I promise! When that happens, you will be complaining how one directional the price action is and fussing about the ride being straight down. You will go from a food processor to a water slide that is several stories high and practically a vertical drop. Tue, 15 Jun 2010 23:44:58 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#SPY's-correction-may-be-complete The Elliott Wave count indicates that the last push to complete the corrective move up potentially is complete. The price could extend higher tomorrow, however, it is not necessary. Tue, 15 Jun 2010 23:44:58 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Volatility-is-coming-back-into-the-Market! VXX has risen out of TAZ. Look for the VXX to reach the 40 to 50 level next. Tue, 08 Jun 2010 00:40:32 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#TBT-Volume The volume has increased dramatically since the end of April. You have to wonder if the price is about to bottom somewhere near current levels. Most likely we will see one more spike down with volume exceeding the current volume high set on the "Flash Crash" day. Tue, 25 May 2010 03:59:42 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Look-out-for-the-VIXX The VIXX is now above its 55 EMA! It has not been above it since March 2009. Yesterday may have been a warning shot across the bow. Keep a close eye one the markets. Fri, 07 May 2010 15:08:05 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/country_funds.html Chart & Analysis for Country Funds Wed, 24 Feb 2010 04:29:51 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/sector_funds.html Chart & Analysis for Sector Funds Mon, 15 Feb 2010 16:17:38 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/currency_funds.html Chart & Analysis for Currency Funds Mon, 15 Feb 2010 04:49:41 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/energy_funds.html Chart & Analysis for Energy Funds Sun, 14 Feb 2010 03:34:01 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Market-Indexes-are-due-for-a-bounce. I have looked hard at the Index charts this afternoon trying to get my head what is going on in the markets. I had made previous post saying that I expected one more small push lower. It rebounded into 2/2/10 before falling hard into this morning and the small push turned into a large push lower. I then followed that post saying that the second leg down had started. Now I am not sure. Why am I confused? Using Elliott Wave analysis, I can see that the first wave down ended on 1/29/10 with wave two ending on 2/2/10. My last post said that wave three had started with the break below the 1/29/10 low. However, I can see where the 2/2/10 high is only the fourth wave of the first wave down. This means that todays low completed the first wave down, not the 1/29/10 low. What will clear things up? The big one is the break of todays low. A break of that level will confirm that the third wave or second leg down is in play. The bounce that started late this afternoon should retrace higher if the 2/2/10 high is the fourth wave of the higher degree first wave down from the 1/29/10 high. In other words, the upcoming bounce will be the second wave correction instead of the 2/2/10 high. The breaking of the 2/2/10 high is not necessary to validate that interpretation. However, if the third wave is in play, the price should not challenge the 2/2/10 high as much. You must understand that any bounce higher from today is a correction of the main trend down. You can potentially miss great profits by trying to pin point the entry levels on any bounce. The window of opportunity for entries will be narrow in this decline. Things can change on a dime as indicated by todays action. As I have said before, this is a sell short on any upwards bounce. The bounces should not last that long in this decline. With that said, I recommend short sells on any Bull Index ETF with a move above todays high or todays low. You can buy the Bear Index ETFs with a move below todays low or todays high. I meant it when I said the window would be narrow to catch this decline. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 23:31:56 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Take-profits-in-Oil-ETFs! You should be holding a long position in SCO and short positions in OIH, UCO, UGA, and USO if you had been folling my recommendations. Now I recommend taking profits this afternoon as the market seems to decline into the close. Some of these ETFs have over a 20 profit! Fri, 05 Feb 2010 18:37:19 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#The-Bear-Market-has-resumed-its-decline! Wave 3 is officially on! I recommend taking long positions on any Bear ETF and short positions on any Bull ETF. We may see a bounce tomorrow and that will be a great opportunity to take positions. I cannot stress enough that this is just the beginning. You need to be getting out of any long positions in Index, Financial, Oil, Gold, or Silver funds. The bear market will not take any prisoners this time. The decline in 2008 and 2009 will be a kids birthday party compared to this coming slaughter. You will have opportunities to take positions in Bear ETFs and short Bull ETFs in the coming months. Just realize that the opportunities to get the best price will be a very small window. You used to hear that the best way to make money in the market is to buy and hold while accumulating shares on any dips. A buy (short) and hold will be good here, however, you will be adding short positions on any upwards bounce. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 03:09:34 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#USO-has-found-resistance. USO has broken through the 38.2 retracement level and is just short of the 50 level. Current price however, is snug up against horizontal resistance. This may be the end to the corrective pattern. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:42:39 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#DIA-and-SPY-have-broken-the-38.2-retracement. DIA and SPY have broken the 38.2 retracement of the current decline. The corrective pattern appears to be an expanded flat according to Elliott Wave Analysis and potentially could be near completion. QQQQ has not even reached the 38.2 level. It seems the broader index does not have enough strength to climb the hill. The next day or two could be crucial for a potential entry for a short trade. Stay tuned! Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:42:39 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#GLD-has-reached-the-50-retracement. GLD has reached the 50 retracement level and also a horizontal resistance. The corrective pattern looks to be complete, although I recommend confirmation before entering a short trade. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:42:39 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#GLD-correction-nears-completion. GLD looks like it is putting the finishing touches on an expanded flat this morning. I do not want to recommend a trade until confirmation. The price action this morning already looks bearish; however, I want to see how it finishes the day. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 15:11:14 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#No-stab-lower-for-Major-Indexes. Apparently, the major indexes completed the first leg down since the January highs. I was expecting one smaller stab lower; however, I apparently missed the count. With the volume being muted with the strong up move today, I do not expect the prices in the major indexes to break above the 38.2 retracement level. That level for DIA is 103.01, SPY is 110.24, and QQQQ is 44.16. There is no reason it cannot retrace more, but I want you to be on alert at those levels in case a good short sell entry presents itself. You can follow the other Index ETFs for they will shadow the above ETFs. There will be many opportunities to make some money with the upcoming move down. You will have to decide which funds to trade. Mon, 01 Feb 2010 23:27:38 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Gold's-first-leg-down-is-complete. I apparently missed the Elliott Wave count in gold as I did with the major indexes. The first leg down should be complete. One thing to mention is the important fact that the corrective pattern potentially could be near completion. Gold had a very big move today and retraced 38.2 of the decline. It could potentially challenge the 50 retracement level in the next day or so. Stay close for my recommendations. Mon, 01 Feb 2010 23:27:38 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#One-more-stab-lower-for-the-Major-Indexes. It looks like DIA will need one more stab lower tomorrow or Monday to complete the first leg down. Right now we have 10 waves down when viewing a 15-minute chart. Impulsive waves have either 5, 9, or 13 waves. Corrective waves have either 3, 7, or 11 waves. Since we only have 10 down, we then need one more up-down move. We probably had the up move at the end of the trading day today, therefore, we only need one more push to lower lows. After that, we should have a multiple day corrective bounce into next week. Thu, 28 Jan 2010 22:52:17 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Take-profits-in-the-Gold-ETFs. A temporary bottom is in place. Take profits in DZZ, GLL, GLD, IAU, and UGL. We will wait on the bounce to find the best re-entry level. Thu, 28 Jan 2010 18:26:59 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Take-profits-in-QQQQ-and-TWM! Take profits in QQQQ and TWM. The five wave pattern down seems to be complete. Take profits and then we will wait for a correction to jump in again. Wed, 27 Jan 2010 19:41:43 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Price-Targets-Hit-for-SLV-and-ZSL! My price targets were hit for SLV and ZSL for profits of 10.22 and 19.02! Now we wait for a correction for re-entry. Wed, 27 Jan 2010 19:02:36 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#What-is-going-on? The count I have for the major indexes show we should see one more push to lower lows the next day or two. After that, we should see a multiple day retracement before the downtrend resumes. TBT and PST have finished their correction and should head to higher highs. XLF should also push lower, however, I believe it will push lower and for a longer time relative to the major indexes. Oil, Gold, and Silver should also push lower the next couple of days. This will NOT be a market for buying on the dips, but for selling on the bounces. Tue, 26 Jan 2010 04:00:21 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Take-profits-in-DZZ-and-GLL. I recommend taking profits today. The wave could extend a little higher, but there is good profits at current levels. Fri, 22 Jan 2010 20:38:04 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Lower-Prices-for-QQQQ. Looking at the weekly chart for QQQQ, we can see two Japanese Candlestick reversal patterns in one. The last two weeks formed a reversal pattern called an Evening Star with the gap and close at the top on the week ending 1/8/10. Last week confirmed the Evening Star by the price falling into the price range of the week ending 1/1/10. Last week also shows a Bearish Engulfment Candlestick. This indicates we can expect lower prices from here. There was also a Bearish Engulfment Candlestick on the daily chart for 1/15/10. That is a lot of negative price action and from the weekly chart at that. Look for lower prices this week. I recommend a short sell for QQQQ with a break below the 1/12/10 low. Place a stop loss just above the 1/15/10 high. Mon, 18 Jan 2010 05:31:43 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Lower-Price-for-OIH? OIH made a higher high on 10/21/09 followed by a sell off that took the price down to the 12/8/09 low. From there, the price moved higher and broke above the 10/21/09 high on 1/8/10. The next day, the price opened well above the previous close, but could not hold those levels. First, the double top and failure is a 2B top. A 2B top is when the price breaks a previous high but sold off and closed down for the day, as it broke the top of 10/21/09 on 1/8/10. Second, the price closed well below the previous days close and retraced 50 of the previous days range. The Japanese Candlestick pattern it formed is a Dark Cloud Cover, which is a reversal pattern. Third, the Japanese Candlestick on 1/15/10 is a Bearish Engulfment. This indicates that lower prices are expected. With this much negative or bearish price action, I recommend short selling OIH if the price falls through the 1/13/10 low. Place a stop loss just above the 1/15/10 high. Mon, 18 Jan 2010 05:08:24 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Oil-Top? Oil may have topped today. Take a look at the charts of USO, OIH, UCO, and UGA. They all have bearish Japanese Candlestick Reversal Patterns, whether they are Engulfing candles or Dark Cloud Cover. I warn anyone who has long positions in any type of Oil market to be very cautious here. Tue, 12 Jan 2010 04:55:10 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Buy-UUP UUP had a bullish engulfment candlestick yesterday right on top of the 13 EMA. The price rose this morning and has since fallen back a little. Now is a good time to take a position in UUP. Place a stop loss just below 22.89. Wed, 30 Dec 2009 19:01:32 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Take-Profits-in-UGE Take profits at current levels, which should give you a 3 profit. Wed, 30 Dec 2009 15:03:20 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/ETF-blog.html#Take-profits-in-EWY! EWI has made its way to horizontal resistance and I recommend taking profits. At current levels, profits should be just short of 4. Wed, 30 Dec 2009 14:52:45 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/watch-list-short.html Short with a break below 15.46 Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:49:44 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/watch-list-long.xml Buy with a break above 11.48 Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:49:44 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/etf-taz.html I have added a page dedicated solely to trade recommendations bases on a Swing Trade method called TAZ. I will follow 84 ETFs right now and will add more if needed. I will have watch lists and active trade lists on both, long and short positions. I am very excited about this new feature and hope you will benefit from it! Mon, 28 Dec 2009 00:28:54 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/zsl.html I have not recommended a buy in ZSL. I have been tempted several times since the recent bottom. Right now, the price is inside a resistance area from previous congestion shown on the chart. The price is testing the 55 EMA, therefore, I want to see the price action for a couple of more days before I make a recommendation. Wed, 23 Dec 2009 00:45:22 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/dzz.html DZZ has moved inside the TAZ. I believe the price will break out above the 55 EMA, however, I recommend raising the stop loss to just below the 12/17/09 low. Wed, 23 Dec 2009 00:38:51 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/gll.html GLL has moved inside the TAZ. I believe the price will break out above the 55 EMA, however, I recommend raising the stop loss to just below the 12/17/09 low. Wed, 23 Dec 2009 00:38:51 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/pst.html PST has broken out above the previous high and the down slopping trend line resistance with a gap open. There is resistance at the 54 and 55 level. The price moved well beyond the 55 EMA and I expect the price to reach the 233 EMA, which is the 55 level. Tue, 22 Dec 2009 02:00:11 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/uso.html USO has retested the up slopping trend line and seems to have found good resistance because it firmly repelled the price. The price also made its way into the TAZ, but has since fall out of the area. We should see a challenge of the 34 level in the next couple of days. Tue, 22 Dec 2009 02:00:11 GMT http://www.etf-technical-analysis.com/tbt.html TBT gapped up at the open today and it broke the previous high. TBT has made it to the 233 EMA and we will have to wait and see how strong the resistance will be. Tue, 22 Dec 2009 02:00:11 GMT