Energy Funds

These funds cover various energy sectors, which include Coal, Nuclear, Solar, Wind, and the Utilities; and of course, we cannot leave off Clean Energy Sector. There is only one leveraged ETF and that is the Bullish Utility ETF UPW.

Below, under “Comments, Analysis, and Recommendations”, I will write my comments for the Energy Funds giving you my chart analysis. I want to give you good evidence as to why I believe certain Energy Funds are heading higher or lower. I base my analysis on several technical tools. I use Exponential Moving Averages, Elliott Wave Analysis, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlestick patterns, trend lines, and support/resistance lines.

My goal is to provide you with the information needed so you can make the best trading decisions with these Energy Funds. My goal is also to help you to become profitable and most of all to help keep you from loosing a ton of money. I will provide you the potential price targets to take profits and stop loss levels to help preserve your trading capital in these Energy Funds.

Click on the desired Energy Funds link below to view the chart.

Comments, Analysis, and Recommendations

2/13/10

There is nothing impressive with these Energy ETFs. Technically, all are in a very weak position. The 13 EMAs are below their 55 EMAs. Most have their price well below their 233 EMAs. That is not a good sign if you are hoping for higher prices.

The weakest of these ETFs, which has had the steepest declines, are FAN, GEX, PBW, and PWND. Do you wonder what happened with all the excitement with clean and wind energy? FAN, GEX and PWND are now below what was critical horizontal support from June and July lows. These are well oversold and may get a little bounce out of them. However, thinking about it, they may not. What was support is now resistance and it is not that far above current levels. I already see one five waves down with another already started. You can see these funds decline soon, even further and steeper than they already have.

Some funds have found support with horizontal lines from the price action of the second half of 2009. KOL, NLR, PKN, and TAN are in this category. KOL is the only one that has popped above the 13 EMA and entered into the TAZ. KOL also found support with the 233 EMA, which is also the only fund in this group that has managed such. However, KOL has cleared the trend line support and is making lower highs and low. There is an impulsive five waves down in all of these, which indicate that the trend is turning down.

Talking about trend lines, IYE and XLU have fallen well below their trend line support as well as being below their 233 EMAs. XLE has found its trend line support a little more accommodating. XLE has also found support with the 233 EMA. This support is not squeezing the price against the resistance of the 13 and 55 EMAs. The 13 EMA is below the 55 EMA and there are lower highs and lows. I believe it is a matter of time before support is broken.

PKOL is another one in this group that has found support with the 233 EMA. However, the 13 and 55 EMA is bearish. PKOL has also fallen well below its trend line support coming from the March 2009 lows. Even though the price hit the 233 EMA, the decline from the January high was steep. Therefore, the bounce was expected, but do not expect it to hold much longer.

Be a smart trader.

Craig Wells

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