Silver FundsSLV, SIVR, and USV are the Bull Silver ETFs and ETNs while the ZSL is the only Bear Fund. ZSL is also a double leveraged fund. AGQ and DBS are the double leveraged Bull Funds. Below, under “Comments, Analysis, and Recommendations”, I will write my comments for these ETFS giving you my chart analysis. I want to give you good evidence as to why I believe the major indexes are heading higher or lower. I base my analysis on several technical tools. I use Exponential Moving Averages, Elliott Wave Analysis, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlestick patterns, trend lines, and support/resistance lines. My goal is to provide you with the information needed so you can make the best trading decisions. My goal is also to help you to become profitable and most of all to help keep you from loosing a ton of money. I will provide you the potential price targets to take profits and stop loss levels to help preserve your trading capital. Click on the desired Silver Funds link below to view the chart. AGQ - ProShares Ultra Silver DBS- PowerShares DB Silver Fund SLV - iShares Silver Trust SIVR - ETFS Silver Trust USV - E-Tracs Ubs Bberg Cmci Silver ZSL- ProShares UltraShort Silver Comments, Analysis, and Recommendations7/1/10: There was a very strong down day today in SLV. There are so many bearish signs with today’s price action; forgive me as I may miss a couple in my analysis. SLV dropped 3.73% today and that drop put the price below the 13 EMA and the 55 EMA. The 13 EMA is still above the 55 EMA, even though it should cross below with a couple more down days. The price action the last couple of days has had lower high and lows, which indicate that lower lows should be forthcoming. The large decline today also had a significant increase in volume to go along with it. This indicates there was a lot of distribution in this fund and it should be just the beginning. The price retraced 76.4% of the decline from 5/13/10 to the 5/21/10 low. Surrounding that level was a couple of bearish engulfment candlestick patterns and island reversals. These were the first signs of what was coming in today’s price action. The critical resistance and support levels are the 6/21/10 high and 5/21/10 low. A break of either one of these levels will indicate which direction the price will head in the next couple of weeks. I place the odds in favor of lower prices. We need to see the 13 EMA below the 55 EMA before I will recommend shorting silver. Once one of these levels is broken, I will give targets for the next couple of weeks. 6/21/10: SLV closed down over 2.50 points today. It formed a bearish engulfment candlestick today while it also filled an open gap formed Friday and almost filled a Thursday’s gap with today’s decline! Watch for lower highs and lower lows when viewing the 60-minute chart to indicate that the price is heading lower. I do not see SLV moving any higher with today’s price action. 5/7/10 Silver has risen, as Gold has, but not quite as strong as Gold. The rise from the February lows has been somewhat overlapping, which indicates a corrective pattern. From those lows, the price has managed to process higher highs and lows. The price action surrounding the last week or so may indicate that may be about to change. Wait for lower highs and lows before confirming a change in trend is about to take place. 3/2/10 The Silver Funds is where I had to back off and re-evaluate the chart. In my newsletter last night, I stated that there were four waves down so far and needed one more push lower to complete the pattern down. However, the market needed to humble me. The price moved into the price action of wave-1 formed with the 12/30/09 low. Now we have two waves 1 and 2. You can look at the chart for SLV to see how I have labeled the chart. There is still lower highs and lows indicating that the trend is down. Wave (ii) could be complete with today’s price action and wave count. The candlestick for the Silver Funds had a relatively long upper shadow, which indicates weakness at the higher levels. The price could decline tomorrow. The price did come close to filling an open gap created on 1/26/10. There is another open gap from 1/22/10 and the price could push towards that target. From what I see in the wave count, it is not necessary. What is critical for the wave count is the 1/19/10 high. That is still well above current levels because the price has not even reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A break of the 1/19/10 high will humble me more and cause me to re-evaluate the chart again, however, a break of that level will greatly alter the expectation for the silver price. The critical level that would signal the next leg down is underway will be a break below the 2/25/10 low. Of course, I always prefer a clear five-wave pattern down before I will say the next leg down is underway. Be a smart trader! Craig Wells 2/24/10 The corrective bounce in the Silver Funds may be complete. However, when viewing SLV, there is no clear Elliott Wave five waves down that would confirm the completion of the correction. The price action off the 2/5/10 low is corrective in nature because the waves overlap. The real question is just how much longer or higher will the correction go. The next day or two will help answer that question. Lower prices from here and a clear five waves down will indicate that the next leg lower is underway. A break above the 2/19/10 high will of course indicate the correction is not over and we will have to wait a little longer before the next leg down starts. Be a smart trader! Craig Wells 2/10/10 It does not look good for the Bull Silver Funds. Every single one has the 13 EMA below the 55 EMA, the 55 EMA below the 233 EMA, and the price below the 233 EMA. This is not a good combination for a positive expectation for higher prices. Short term, even though the indicators are oversold, I expect the price to fall to lower lows in the next couple of days. I can count a definite five-wave decline from the 1/19/10 high through the 1/28/10 low. The correction ended on 2/2/10. Since that 2/2/10 high, the price has traced out another five-wave move to the 2/5/10 low. This indicates that the next leg lower is underway. The bounce off the 2/5/10 low looks complete with a retracement just short of the 50% Fibonacci retracement. There was an unfilled gap on the open of 2/4/10. I do not expect the price to fill that gap. The critical levels for the intermediate term are the 2/2/10 high and the 2/5/10 low. The critical levels for the short term are the 2/9/10 high and the 2/8/10 low. A break below the 2/8/10 low will signal the price is heading to much lower prices, while a break below the 2/5/10 low will confirm it. I expect the price of SLV to decline to the 12.00 level. Be a smart trader! Craig Wells Do not forget to subscribe to the RSS Feed for my blog. My blog will keep you current on my updates to my analysis and recommendations. I will post to this blog before I update the Chart and Analysis section. You can also subscribe to my monthly newsletter, ETF Technical Trader. This will keep you informed as a reminder of the analysis and recommendations since the last newsletter. You will be able to reflect on the progress of my service and receive insight into the probabilities of direction in the next couple of weeks. By the way, it cost you nothing! Just fill out the form below and subscribe.
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